/strutheo/what-will-happen-in-december-2024-a coming up next

@SteveSokolowski @strutheo
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/
high 152.89 Nov 21st

For the first time since the polls began, as the results currently stand, a majority believes that AGI has been achieved.

I don't understand why so many people had bet NO on the 30% threshold.

@JamesF fwiw, election day was not an all time peak for DAU, 7d avg DAU, trades, engaged users, signups, mana traded, or basically any activity metric I can find. (generally, the peak from LK-99 was higher)

https://manifold.markets/stats

@Ziddletwix why do you think that is? The election seems like a higher profile event that brought significant media attention to prediction markets like polymarket

@TheAllMemeingEye There was a large spike in usage, it just didn’t reach the heights of LK99. And not entirely sure why it didn’t take off more, I’m guessing a lot of attention was split by Kalshi and polymarket, offering a more polished mature version of the product

@Ziddletwix

more polished mature version of the product

Sounds like Manifold

@JamesF @strutheo

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/news/rnc-fights-illegal-ballot-counting-in-pennsylvania
This seems about a senate election. Does that mean it does not count and the lawsuit has to be about presidential election to count for this question?

Can we get a resolution on these election questions?

@MugaSofer KAMALA CAN STILL WIN IF THERE ARE DOZENS OF FAITHLESS ELECTORS /s

@strutheo Resolves YES.

https://apnews.com/article/casey-mccormick-pennsylvania-senate-recount-f0da8720c540fc1b10328da37135a1ee

@strutheo i think she might be busy doing last-minute vice-presidential type stuff but who's to say really

Do we have a good measurement for this? I would have expected election night to be a peak.

@strutheo resolve yes pls https://www.tesla-fire.com/index-amp

@ChrisMillsc5f7 That is 11 February not November 2nd
"Latest update: Feb. 17, 2024"
Link says "Posted: Feb 11, 2024 / 01:05 PM PST"

However
https://people.com/4-killed-after-tesla-crash-sparks-fire-in-toronto-8743464

@strutheo
High 18,907.80
52-wk high 18,907.80

Looks like an all time high:

Intraday18,785.49 Thursday, October 3, 1974

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp-500-futures-soar-record-high-after-trump-claims-victory-2024-11-06/
All three major indexes hit record highs

@JamesF I assume this is 6AM ET

https://apnews.com/live/trump-harris-election-updates-11-5-2024
10:35 AM GMT

AP Race Call: Donald Trump elected 47th president of the United States

10:35 GMT = 5:35 ET

@ChristopherRandles Yeah

@SteveSokolowski I assume this refers to the US President?

@MugaSofer yes

How is "Jon Tester reelected" higher than "Democrats hold the Senate?" That doesn't make sense and is inconsistent.

That's perfectly reasonable. John Tester could be reelected with another Democratic incumbent losing their election (e.g., Sherrod Brown), which would still lead to Democrats losing the Senate. But it's almost impossible for them to win the Senate without John Tester.

chris @strutheo , there is another nVidia stock price here that you forgot to divide by ten.

I presume "Recount in Pennsylvania" only resolves YES if it's a recount for the Presidential race? There's bound to be some downballot recounts, but I don't think that was the intent.

chris @strutheo , here's another of those "Joe Biden elected President" markets that you haven't resolved yet.