☃️What will happen in December 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]

Plus

Ṁ7659

Jan 1

98.8%

Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month

98.7%

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

98%

Someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump receives an electoral vote

89%

A tesla catches fire as reported by news or tesla-fire.com

63%

web3isgoinggreat makes at least 20 posts this month

63%

NASDAQ hits an all time high

63%

Penn State football advances to round of eight

56%

2 or more inches of snow fall in nyc

31%

at least 1 inch of snow freshly falls in NYC on christmas day

31%

at least 1 inch of snow on the ground already on christmas day in NYC

28%

Jimmy Carter says something

26%

For the first time, weak AGI is declared to have been achieved by a majority of Manifold respondents in the monthly poll

23%

>= 20% of Manifold respondents believe that weak superintelligence has been achieved in the monthly poll

22%

another right wing media persona is revealed to have taken russia money

14%

Ohio State football fails to earn playoff berth

14%

8.0+ magnitude earthquake

11%

One or more faithless electors

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on lebanon

Dec (from Ant & Dec) mentions decimals, decibels, tough decisions, despots, Despicable Me, or Despacito on social media

another indictment against trump

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#What Will Happen Markets

#December

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6 Comments

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bought Ṁ50 NO

To clarify here for bettors, "for the first time weak AGI is achieved" means that the majority threshold has to occur in December 2024, by the plain reading of the text.

There is a possibility that the standing results of the November 2024 poll will hold, and a majority will declare weak AGI achieved in November, resolving this question NO.

sold Ṁ22 YES

@AlexanderMiller wait, doesn't the electoral college vote happen in January, and the election was back in November?

bought Ṁ100 YES

@AlexanderMiller lol

lol wow

bought Ṁ40 NO

A quick Google suggests he doesn't have his own social media, just shared Ant & Dec social media. How to resolve if e.g. the @AntAndDec Twitter account tweets on one of these topics?

@MugaSofer I'll count that then haha

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