Which of the following will happen in the 2024 Presidential election? [ADD YOUR OWN ANSWERS (**see note**)]
➕
Plus
58
Ṁ16k
Jan 1
80%
A candidate files a lawsuit on Election Day
66%
Trump wins at least 15% of the black vote
26%
There will be at least 1 Faithless Elector
20%
There will be at least 5 Faithless Electors
Resolved
YES
Trump wins the popular vote
Resolved
YES
Trump wins the election (electoral college)
Resolved
YES
Trump wins Michigan
Resolved
YES
Trump wins Nevada
Resolved
YES
Trump wins Pennsylvania
Resolved
YES
Trump wins Wisconsin
Resolved
YES
Trump wins Arizona
Resolved
YES
Trump wins Georgia
Resolved
YES
A candidate receives >300 electoral college votes
Resolved
YES
The Associated Press will declare a winner by EOD (ET) on Nov. 6
Resolved
YES
The Associated Press will declare a winner by EOD (ET) on Nov. 12

** Note: In order to make room for popular questions, any market that does not have:

  • >8 bettors within a month for markets launched before September 1

  • >8 bettors within a week for markets launched between September 1 and October 22

  • >8 bettors within 2 days after October 22

Will be N/A'd at that time. I reserve the right to change the threshold number of bettors at any time if too many or too few markets are meeting it.

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@CateHall @mods most of these can resolve

@Yiddishe_Kupp1980 I tried to resolve the ones that seem completely clear and relied upon the Associated Press as the source. I'm sure @CateHall can handle the rest in time.

@CateHall Does this have to be a major candidate? What about someone like Randall Terry, the Constitution Party nominee for president (on the ballot in at least 12 states)?

Do the faithless electors have to be successful or just try to vote for someone else?

@NathanScott They have to actually cast a ballot for someone else, but it counts even if the ballot is voided or they are replaced with a new elector (I don't think they can be prevented from voting in the first place, correct me if I'm wrong).

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