📆What will happen in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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358
Ṁ160k
Jan 1
97%
Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2023) [EST] ***- $43,739.54 - closing price on Festivus 2023***
96%
linda yaccarino still ceo of twitter at end of year
90%
at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)
85%
Deagle's old "2025 forecast" will turn out to be completely wrong
83%
Manifold users rate manifold politics as a successful experiment at eoy
80%
Elon Musk spends Christmas Eve or Day with Trump (in person or virtually)
74%
English Wikipedia will reach 6.93 million articles.
74%
Bitcoin hits $100k USD
36%
Another major Labour Party (UK) gaffe (post-Nov 20th)
32%
Casa Bonita reopens to the general public with full normal restaurant hours (no longer invite/reservation only)
31%
Any world leader says a racial slur
30%
Premier League total goal count: Delap ≥10; Palmer ≥11; and Salah ≥12 (https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/players/goals)
26%
official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)
25%
Total funding for the Effective Altruism movement grows >25% compared to 2023
20%
Manifold raises more money (through grant, investment, or other means, at least $100K)
19%
Anyone from the 2023 Time100 passes away (https://time.com/collection/100-most-influential-people-2023/)
19%
The next actor to play James Bond will be announced
18%
Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married (to anyone)
17%
Jimmy Carter dies
17%
A terrorist bombing is perpetrated by a Christian, Hindu or Buddhist religious extremist somewhere in the world (in the name of religious extremism)

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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@vitamind what would you consider to have been qualifying gaffes that happened pre-Nov 20th?

@TheAllMemeingEye really quickly off the top of my head:

  • Rachel Reeve's questionable CV.

  • Starmer hostage-sausage misspeak.

  • Labour proposing to pay their top government advisor (non-elected) more than Starmer.

I probably wouldn't count the following things because they never really "caught on" (i.e., never led to extended media and social media coverage, debate in parliament, cross-party criticism etc.:

@TheAllMemeingEye Canadian PM Justin Trudeau had a semi-scandal in January after calling a political opponent a "twofer" (defined by dictionary.com as "Disparaging. a person who belongs to two minority groups and can satisfy two quotas or appeal to two political constituencies, especially a Black woman who can be counted twice in a position she holds, as fulfilling a racial and a sexual quota."). Some would say that in context it was obviously not intended to be understood as a slur. Does it count as a racial slur for this market?

@UnspecifiedPerson what was the context it was said in?

@Weezing i dont know who needs to hear this but en wiki is averaging about less then 200 new articles a day currently and its currently at 6.913 million articles as of 20th November. This will hardly be enough to reach 6.93

@PoliticalEconomyPK It now seems I do know who needs to hear this but en wiki is averaging around 480 new articles a day currently and it is at 6.913 million articles as of 20th November. This gives a forecast of ~6.932 million which is very close to the 6.93 threshold and it drifting towards being under is possible but my predictions have been quite steady and consistent in being slightly over in the predictions I am getting.

Resolves YES

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@strutheo
National team resolves yes

while
MLB World Series won by the American League team
resolves no

@BlueDragon What does "uncontested" mean in this context?

@Kraalnaxx That one of the candidates has conceded and we have a president elect

@Erskine does president elect count?

It does not say “elected”. It says “first female president” in 2024. To me, as posed, it must mean that a female would need to actually be president at some time in 2024. The only ambiguity, in my opinion, is which country she would be president of. 🙂

@OracleAtWiFi ill count elect in this case, i think we knew wht they meant. otherwise it was an impossible answer

bought Ṁ50 NO

@strutheo I don't agree, they should've specified. Besides, we have a lot of answers here that are basically proxies for "Harris wins".

ok then ill na it @mods ty

reposted

72 days let in year!

@strutheo
Does Ukraine invade Russia count?
Does Israel invade Lebanon count?

@strutheo
SpaceX launches by 15th Oct
96 Falcon 9 numbered 286 to 381
2 Falcon heavy
3 Starship
Total 101 (includes 1 failed F9 launch)

bought Ṁ50 NO

@strutheo i assume you mean successful coups

bought Ṁ100 YES

@strutheo
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/weather/st-petersburg-building-crane-hurricane-milton.html
Crane Collapses in Downtown St. Petersburg as Milton Batters Florida

@strutheo Please resolve Yes. iPhone 16 is released

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