⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2024? (16 DONE)

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156

Ṁ68k

Jan 1

46%

next version of Chat GPT (4.5 or 5) releases to the general userbase

34%

Manifold (the company) announces they have raised more money through grant/investors/etc

27%

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

27%

Rust (game) adds pets to the official servers

26%

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

25%

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

23%

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

22%

Taylor Swift announces engagement or marriage

22%

Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

22%

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

19%

Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)

17%

Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video

14%

Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users

13%

Manifold reaches 12,000 Monthly active users

12%

Twitter gets a new CEO

Israel and Hamas announce an end to immediate hostilities (not just a temporary ceasefire)

2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken

Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape

the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses before EOY

Bitcoin BTC drops below $30K USD

The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@strutheo 25 Aug 2022

^ ?

https://store.steampowered.com/app/2291060/EARTH_DEFENSE_FORCE_6/

Yeah I know, but it didn't mention steam. Anyway are you resolving it as 25 July 2024?

Oh woops. Yes I meant steam. Yes that day

@strutheo You said yes, but not resolved for a while.

reposted

releases in 2-3 days

bought Ṁ100 YES

earth defense force 6 release date - july 25 announced

bought Ṁ250 YES

Hades 2 is out this morning!

seem like quite a lot of unboxings, so I think this can resolve

bought Ṁ200 YES

This should resolve YES:
https://llama.meta.com/llama3/

bought Ṁ2,700 YES

reached

reposted

april bump

bought Ṁ1,130 YES

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/tesla-battery-catches-fire-illinois-shutting-down-highway-hours-report

If OpenAI releases a major successor to GPT-4, but it is not called GPT-5, will this resolve YES?

@chris if they call it 4.5 or 5 ill resolve yes, but not if it is just a small improvement on 4 itself

bought Ṁ100 NO

@strutheo How about if they call it something completely new (new naming scheme)

i think 4o is .5-like enough for this to resolve yes, at least when the voice modality is made available

reddit IPO is 7th

bought Ṁ20 YES

6/20 complete now

Over 6.8M

After 85 "This will be my final Chris Chan doc for a good long while, possibly a year or longer."

In the world? Does that mean an Ioquake could qualify? Or is that ruled out by using term earthquake? Anyway it is not likely that we get a measurement. So really wondering if this should say on Earth rather than in the world.

@ChristopherRandles world = earth here lol

bought Ṁ2,000 YES

here's.... ANOTHER ONE

@strutheo ^

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