Which of the following 10 events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order?

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Ṁ3949

2050

28%

The Simpsons ends

29%

Sagrada Familia Church completed

31%

Star Citizen released (or company ceases)

32%

2000 Pokemon released (or series ends)

36%

Bitcoin reaches $200K USD

40%

Olympics hosted in Africa

40%

The Centennial Light Bulb burns out

56%

Tom Scott's 'This Video has X Views' reaches 500M views

70%

USA adds 51st state

74%

Human walks on Mars

Will resolve each event to a percentage as they happen, starting with 10% and working upward as follows:

1st event: 10% (happens soonest)
2nd event: 20%
...
10th event: 100% (happens latest)

If there is only one unresolved answer left, it will be resolved to 100% YES even if that event does not actually happen, since we could we waiting for a very long time.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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confident about which happens last? set up a limit order

My back of the envelope puts the Tom Scott milestone around 2053.

TLDR - raising a number implies you think that event will happen LATER (or not at all)

@strutheo I would have participated but I will be refusing because it is independent multiple choice

@Tumbles i was feeling adventurous today

@strutheo It's just so much less enjoyable to interact with and less useful at the same time. I'm on strike

@strutheo You should NA and remake while it's still young. It's a really massive difference

@Tumbles too late maybe next time, i just do whatever the creation options tell me to tbh

bought Ṁ250 YES

@strutheo This feels counterintuitive

@JaimeSantaCruz The “yes is no” part. I don’t really understand the difference between independent and dependent MC

@JaimeSantaCruz I didn't either when I made this market haha

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