Fed Rates

Basic
Will FED cut rates at their December 2024 meeting?YES
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US enter a recession in 2024? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)NO
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Will the US enter a recession by first half of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)26% chance
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Premium
Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?7% chance
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Will Manifold price a 2024 US recession at >50% at the end of 2024?NO
Basic
Will the Fed make an emergency unscheduled rate hike or cut in 2024?NO
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[ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?YES
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Will the US "vibecession" continue through all of 2024?YES
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[ACX 2024] Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?NO
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