Hard Forkasts

Plus

Will the Apple Vision Pro be successful enough to revive interest in mixed reality and the metaverse?11% chance

Plus

Will Elon Musk get his own Hunter Biden laptop scandal in 2024?YES

Plus

Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?8% chance

Plus

Will Threads overtake X in daily active users by the end of 2024?3% chance

Plus

Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?32% chance

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Will a lawless LLM chatbot get 10 million daily active users by the end of 2024?9% chance

Premium

Which of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true? [Multiple Choice]

93%

GPT-5 begins training.

93%

TikTok skates unscathed through another presidential administration.

82%

The quality of search results degrades as Google proves unable to reliably detect AI-generated content.

72%

Fragmentation in social media will make it more difficult to understand which narratives are resonating most with voters.

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Plus

How many of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true?

2%

1

1.2%

2

2%

3

1.7%

4

See 8 more answers

Plus

Will Shania Twain go on the Hard Fork podcast in 2024?9% chance

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