Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
Plus
36
Ṁ16532041
66%
USA
20%
China
4%
2%
United Kingdom
2%
India
1.8%
Japan
1.7%
France
1.4%
Australia
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?
58% chance
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
From which country will originate the AI that first passes Manifold AI's high quality Turing Test?
Which company will create AGI first?
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Which lab will claim that they have developed AGI first?
If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
34% chance
Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?