Will AI create the first AGI?
Plus
4
Ṁ2502035
39%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES iff: AGI is created before 2035 according to this question:
https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd
And a publicly known system (at the time of resolution) created before the first publicly known AGI (at the time of resolution) is able to write the full code base of an AGI, without introducing any new human knowledge to it.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
38% chance
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Which company will create AGI first?
Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?
42% chance
Who first builds an Artificial General Intelligence?
What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]
Will AGI be a problem before non-G AI?
21% chance
How long until we see the first report of a true AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)
Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
17% chance