First pig detected positive. Doesn't count as "spreading" just yet

https://www.statnews.com/2024/10/30/h5n1-bird-flu-found-in-oregon-pig-reassortment-threat-human-transmission/?utm_medium=email&_hsmi=331600440&utm_content=331600440&utm_source=hs_email

@Siebe I assume the option for September can resolve NO then, right?

Edit: I guess you said you're waiting four months, nvm.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 based on current evidence it would indeed resolve no, but yeah I'm waiting 4 months.

It would resolve YES if it's detected in multiple pigs in more than 1 farm, not requiring pig-to-pig transmission (though I wish I had been clearer about whether that last one was necessary!)

No search results on Perplexity, USDA, Twitter, Google, Google Trends, and we know it doesn't spread easily between pigs experimentally. Resolved "before April" to NO.

@traders I realize I did not specify WHEN I would resolve this, so I am settling on 4 months after the date (unless multiple people protest this)

Pigs [n=9] are highly susceptible to but do not transmit [n=6] mink-derived highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2024.2353292#d1e506

This market is still completely off, given the 4th includes the previous 3