Will there be a 1m+ bird flu outbreak in humans in the US by the end of 2025? | Manifold

Will there be a 1m+ bird flu outbreak in humans in the US by the end of 2025?

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118

Ṁ45k

2026

9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

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1,000

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3.00

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https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/12/the-cows-in-the-coal-mine.html

https://polymarket.com/event/bird-flu-pandemic-before-august-2025?tid=1735560519385

bought Ṁ50 YES

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt0180

Estimated or confirmed cases? (Big difference)

@Siebe wow yeah in the first 4 months of the H1N1 pandemic, there were 3 million estimated cases and 43,677 confirmed cases. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3375879/

I think estimated cases is a better metric, as testing capacity is quite strained in a pandemic.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@ahalekelly Do we have an official estimate for the number of cases in 2024?

.

Like JGY said, 66 confirmed H5 cases in 2024, I can't find any estimates of the number of unconfirmed cases.

In humans or in avians?

@willMay Humans

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