On May 31st the third human case was confirmed, and the second in Michigan. All cases so far have involved farm workers with proximity to infected cattle.
https://deepnewz.com/bio/second-human-h5n1-bird-flu-case-michigan-third-u-s-this-year
Market will resolve based on consensus of media reports.
Update 2025-05-01 (PST): - Only cases confirmed in 2025 will be counted toward the total. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-01-28 (PST): - If media sources do not provide 2025-specific case counts, subtract last year's numbers from the total confirmed cases to determine the 2025 counts. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00@mattparlmer It seems like we haven't seen that many human cases recently, would you be willing to share what you're thinking?
@ian I think chances of a massive systematic failure to test on the part of the health authorities are very high
@mattparlmer Agree, but it'll take documented human-human transmission to hit those numbers, I think.
@mattparlmer Apparently the people in charge of testing were just fired:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna192420
But if we don't do any testing, how would we reach 10k confirmed cases?
How will you resolve if the media doesn’t break down case counts by year? According to the CDC, if I recall correctly, there were 66 human cases at the end of 2024. Since then there has been one case. According to this tracker, there have been a few more cases, though by my count only one new case since the new year. But I very much doubt that any media source will be careful enough to provide an answer to this question, much less a consensus of media sources.
@Fay42 those all sound like reasonable options, we can subtract last year’s numbers from the totals if we’re not given 2025 specific counts