Marine Le Pen Will be the next president of France.
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Marine Le Pen is a French politician and the leader of the Rassemblement National party.
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only candidate she could feasibly win a majority against in the second tour is a crazy like Mélenchon, with whom she generally splits the non-centrist vote with in the premier tour.
Meanwhile centrist voters (Renaissance/PS/LR) are more informed/strategic/unlikely to split the vote when there's a LePen v. Mélenchon runoff risk.
look at what happened in 2022, at a time when Macron was fairly unpopular
TL;DR centrist vote can be counted on to rally last-minute b/c Mélenchon/Le Pen/crazies too offputting. Then, none of the crazies really have a chance vs. the centrist.
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