Le Pen is much lower here than in duplicate markets

Édouard Philippe does seem more electable then Attal against a right wing opponent. He leads the horizons party which is to the right of Renaissance which Attal and while both Attal and Phillipe are losing to Le Pen in head to head polls Phillipe is losing by less.

While I don't like the overton window shifting rightward Phillipe would be the more strategic pick to fend off against Le Pen and it's not like the left is just going to disappear, with a more right leaning pick from the centrist side maybe eventually the left will beat the right to 2nd place and the overton window will start shifting left again.

https://x.com/Taniel/status/1800485883398992317

x.com

@dionisos My dude, anyone can add a name on the list, no ?

@MathiasDucancel Yes, I was betting on this market being basically forgotten.

Probably a mistake, but I didn’t bet a lot.

I think it can be Edouard Philippe since he would be in the continuation of Macron's legacy. That's a conservative position I'd say as it's betting on the same schema as the two previous presidential elections.

@Floffinou what? Iirc it's legally impossible for a French president to do three terms in a row.

@FlanAuxQuetsches well, the constitution can be changed, and it has been done on this subject in the recent past (quite unlikely, but it cannot be ruled out. One possible such scenario is a war or coup or other catastrophe.) However the question specifies "after Macron", so even if Macron has a third term this answer would probably be invalid: I now interpret the question as "next president after Macron, regardless when that happens". I missed it at the time.

One important question here is who will manage to unite the Macron political movement behind them, as Macron himself cannot run for president again (unless he manages to change the constitution).

Jean-Luc Melenchon recently said he will not be candidate in 2027. A few minutes later in the same interview he said maybe he will be candidate.

https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/will-jeanluc-melanchon-be-candidate

@Zardoru Is it my browser or are you writting in english? I can't tell

@Simon1551 I am writting in english, or at least I am trying to.

@Zardoru No you're good it's just that my browser keeps translating everything so I can't tell if it's actually in english

@Simon1551 I'm sorry if my translation of what JLM said is unclear. I have read several articles in French (my native language) about the same interview and I don't really understand. I am still unsure how I will bet on this market.

Moi?

You can add the group "France"