50% chance. Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s Rassemblement National (RN) party, is on trial over charges of embezzling European Parliament funds in a scheme involving allegedly fake parliamentary jobs. Prosecutors allege that between 2004 and 2016, Le Pen and other RN members hired parliamentary aides using EU funds, while these aides primarily worked for the party itself, rather than performing parliamentary duties. The case, flagged by investigators in 2015, alleges that RN effectively siphoned EU resources for party operations, saving substantial money in the process. The prosecution have requested the following punishments: A five-year ban from holding elected office, which would prevent Le Pen from running in the 2027 French presidential election. A five-year prison sentence, with two years unsuspended (but "convertible," meaning some leniency or partial release may be possible). A fine for RN of two million euros to penalize the alleged misuse of EU funds. Le Pen and her defense team deny all allegations, claiming there was no wrongdoing. She argues that the prosecution’s charges are politically motivated and designed to damage her political career and her party. Links: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/11/13/far-right-fake-jobs-trial-french-prosecutors-request-marine-le-pen-be-banned-from-election-to-office_6732729_7.html https://www.politico.eu/article/prosecutors-marine-le-pen-sentence-ban-french-presidency-embezzlement-trial/ This market will resolve upon issuance of a verdict in the current trial, as reported by at least two major news sources (e.g. Le Monde, Politico, NYT, BBC). It will resolve positively ("YES") if a guilty verdict is issued at any time before January 1, 2026. This includes guilty verdicts resulting in conditional discharges, partial guilt, and suspended sentences. If a not guilty verdict—either dismissal ("non-lieu") or acquittal ("acquittement")—is issued, the market will resolve negatively ("NO"). Should a retrial or appeal alter the initial verdict, the original resolution will remain binding.

30% chance.