When will Google release Gemini 3?
57
Ṁ9859
2026
3%
Before September 2025
84%
Before October 2025
84%
Before November 2025
83%
Before December 2025
95%
Before 2026

"Gemini 3" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Gemini 2 in a similar way to how Gemini 2 was the successor to Gemini 1, so Gemini 3.0 pro would count, but Gemini 2.X would not.

Models are considered released if they are accessible to some members of the public beyond a closed beta. An API-only release counts, as is one limited to payed users or users of a particular country.

See also:

/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-gemini-3 (this market)

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6

/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp

/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4

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/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-sora-2

/Bayesian/when-will-thinking-machines-announc

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Maybe this is imagen 5

Or maybe gemini 3 can also output video in "true multimodal" mode?

https://x.com/shlomifruchter/status/1957931310632063156

https://x.com/oliver_wang2/status/1957926559295369246

Think they're going to release Gemini 3 with true multimodal

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 21% order

Pressure's off DM a little now

bought Ṁ30 YES

What do you mean "before August 2025" it is august

bought Ṁ1,416 NO

@AGucci No i just had a silly bayesian moment i’ll na that question

bought Ṁ20 NO

wanna bet more on before sept tho? We seem to disagree most on credences for this option

maybe if someone else asked me that lol. that wasn't a bet made very confidently.

I guess there would be more rumors about it by now if it was only 20 days away

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