What will be Scott Alexander's P(zoonosis) at the end of 2024?
Plus
16
Ṁ2077Dec 31
14%
> 90%
65%
90%
18%
60% <= x < 90%
1%
40% <= x < 60%
1.9%
<40%
Resolves to the youngest public statement before the end of 31 dec 2024 SF time.
The current last statement is 90%.
see April market https://manifold.markets/warty/what-will-be-scott-alexanders-pzoon
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will a new zoonotic pathogen spillover in 2024
40% chance
Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
15% chance
Will there be an Mpox pandemic by 2026?
18% chance
Will there be an Mpox pandemic in 2024?
2% chance
Will monkeypox appear to be a seasonal illness, with more occurrence in summer than winter, by the end of 2024?
6% chance
Will there be at least 100 total deaths in the US from Monkeypox by the end of 2024?
5% chance
Lockdowns/mandates in USA from Monkeypox by end of 2026?
13% chance
Will another global-scale novel pathogen emerge before the end of 2025?
13% chance
Will a disease be eradicated in 2024?
7% chance