Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024? | Manifold

Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?

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Resolves to YES if Zvi feels his personal p(doom) has declined sufficiently in 2024 that, as of 1/1/2025, if forced to pick a number after all the various caveats, he would now pick a number lower than his current (as of 1/1/24) 60%, and would now say 50% or less.

Resolves to NO if Zvi would still say 60% or higher if asked for one significant figure.

Arguments are of course welcome but are likely better placed on the blog rather than here.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Zvi, where have you actually stated your P(doom) publicly?

@LincolnQuirk I have mentioned several times that I refer to it as p(0.6) in my posts.

how does this resolve for values from 50-60%?

@kaizen Under 55 would be yes basically.

predictedYES

@ZviMowshowitz I bought YES so I guess I don't mind, but I interpreted "and would now say 50% or less." to mean that anything over 50% means NO, and "substantially" means a 10%+ drop.

"go down substantially up?"

I think there’s a superfluous “up” in the title?

@DaveK Oh, yeah, whoops. Hopefully it's clear.

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