⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2025? (15 DONE)

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Ṁ24k

2026

76%

Trump fires / discharges / replaces a member of his cabinet

76%

Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape

50%

Skate 4 releases

47%

Manifold announces they have raised more money through grant/investors/etc

46%

Bitcoin BTC reaches $150K USD or more

42%

StubHub IPO finalized

33%

Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)

30%

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

20%

Imu face reveal in One Piece

19%

Taylor Swift announces engagement or marriage

18%

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

16%

New record breaking price for a Magic the Gathering card ($3M)

15%

Twitter gets a new CEO

10%

ukraine and russia announce a ceasefire

USA Government has a shutdown

Next Game of Thrones novel release date announced (Winds of Winter)

2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken

A commercial airline hijacking

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

SpaceX IPO finalized

The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@strutheo is this for full release, or public early access?

@RedzoneITG
Sailing as a skill in old school runescape is already out in early access so for consistency presumably should be full release.

wait i didnt even know rs skills had a concept of erly access how does that even work

@strutheo no idea I am just going off
Old School RuneScape's new Sailing skill entered early access with an alpha playtest for members starting March 20, 2025
e.g. https://www.jagex.com/news/head-to-the-high-seas-with-old-school-runescape-s-sailing-skill-alpha-playable-today-for-runescape-members

Note that is probably not "public early access" so maybe there is a difference

oh yeah - in rs case i dont think i count that. but for skate4 i think i will, the end of summer 2025 date has been there for a while

bought Ṁ550 YES

@strutheo can resolve

@strutheo resolve yes

as does 100th SpaceX launch

bought Ṁ150 YES

@strutheo https://deadline.com/2025/07/coyote-vs-acme-comic-con-1236469435/?

bought Ṁ201 YES

@strutheo wikipedia 7m MrBeast 400m and manifest can resolve

sold Ṁ0 NO

where are people seeing the 'coyote acme' release date? i see the purchase was finalized and that its aiming for 2026, but no firm date

@strutheo why N/A?

@ProjectVictory no longer tracked on stats page

idk if im counting the year as a date for silksong

bought Ṁ693 YES

@strutheo part 1 counted elsewhere

bought Ṁ25 YES

@strutheo according to this article it’s coming out 2027-06-04 https://www.marvel.com/articles/movies/spider-man-brand-new-day-title-spider-man-beyond-the-spider-verse-unveiled-first-look-cinemacon-2025

bought Ṁ150 YES

@strutheo
The iPhone 16e, Apple's new entry-level iPhone, was announced on February 19, 2025, with pre-orders starting on February 21st and general availability beginning on February 28th, 2025

bought Ṁ472 YES

@strutheo
Imports from China already face taxes at the border of at least 10%, after a Trump tariff order that went into effect earlier this month.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8yy3wpn6eo

bought Ṁ682 YES

@strutheo https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20250125-in-pictures-first-deportation-flights-of-trump-s-presidency-arrive-in-latin-america

reposted

made one for next year!

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