will i be late to pay back a loan?
3
Ṁ220
2100
22%
chance

if i am ever late to pay back a loan, this market will resolve "yes" and i will create a successor market.

i will not bet on this market (past the initial transaction i already made).

i will use this market's description as a loan ledger.

Active loans

Received

2025-05-17: @Joshua 10k loan at 5% due 2025-06-17.

Past loans

Received

2025-04-30: @Bayesian 10k loan with extra conditions. paid back 2025-05-01.

Given

2025-04-30: @bananaLtsnh 2k at 0% due 2025-05-14. paid back on 2025-05-02. (extra terms applied).

  • Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve to 'NO' solely on the basis that the creator has no outstanding loans at a particular time.

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I think this market should have a close date or resolves no condition. As it is it appears to stay open forever unless it resolves yes, inflating the fairprice

eg ‘resolves no whenever i dont owe money or eoy2025, whichever happens first’

@Bayesian : im unsure which date I should put for the close date. i dont want the market to end every time I dont owe money. but i could do it yearly or every 10y?

i think there's a significant chance im never late to pay a loan (at least until 2100).

@nikthink What i meant is more that the market should resolve NO within at most a few years (preferably a single year) if nothing happens, otherwise it is mostly meaningless, can’t practically be used for insurance, etc. Depends why you made the market ig but if it’s to estimate your risk of default for prospecting creditors, a shorter timespan and creating a new market recurrently might make more sense.

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