Taking best offers for the next 24 hours on this, reply in comment below.

🔨 October 31st 2025 - Ṁ70,000 @DrDerek

@DrDerek 25K

@TheWabiSabi That's a good start, bidding opens up at 25K.

@DrDerek I would hold off. I heard Tumbles is winning an award at Manifest and the prize will make him flush with mana. He'll be able to pay all the loans off with mana to spare, especially with a due date of 10/31, you'll be good. Just hold off a couple of months, be patient.

@DrDerek 28K

It's come to JUMBLES attention that the description for https://manifold.markets/cthor/do-you-agree-to-the-jumbles-bailout was unnecessarily broad. This has now been fixed. Anyone trying to sell their debt can now safely agree to the bailout while trying to negotiate a better price with other parties.

@cthor Can you help me understand which of the loans in the ledger are considered as held by JUMBLES? There's no user account for this group, and only you hold the acquired 169k loan in JUMBLES name, according to the dashboard listed holdings. However you hold another separate loan, and other JUMBLES investors hold tons more individually, but those are not listed as JUMBLES assets, or is it just the listed holdings need updating? Also, which user account(s) will be buying out all the outstanding loans if the bailout is agreed by all creditors?. Thanks!

@cthor similarly among the listed holdings, the NO shares held in JUMBLES name:

• 672,118 NO shares on the main TFC market:

  • 25,000 held by Robincvgr

  • 30,000 held by cthor

  • 9,705 held by crowlsyong

  • 607,413 held by cthor

Just curious, why are you listed twice? More importantly, those all match what's shown in the holders tab here except yours, and Simon holds shares not accounted as JUMBLES? Would any further investments or divestments in NO shares here made by JUMBLES investors' accounts (including those above plus AmmonLam and Simon74fe) be considered distinct from JUMBLES assets?

I'd suggest for clarity to have a distinct JUMBLES user account and transfer all assets to it (NO shares and loans), so both the loans and shares get reflected in JUMBLES name in the ledger and holders tab, respectively, as all this commingling is prone to bad things happening! Sorry for the million questions.

@deagol JUMBLES investors can privately hold debt and/or NO shares, e.g. my "April 20th 2026 - Ṁ14,070" debt is held privately, and (Ṁ652,573 - Ṁ607,413 - Ṁ30,000 = ) Ṁ15,160 of my NO shares are held privately. These aren't listed on the JUMBLES dashboard since they aren't held by JUMBLES. If there are any further investment or donations of shares or debt to JUMBLES holdings they will be listed.

I'm listed twice in the breakdown to clarify for my own accounting that Ṁ30,000 of those shares were donated to JUMBLES from my privately held shares, while the other Ṁ607,413 were purchased from Tumbles using JUMBLES investments. I'll update that to make it clearer.

We did consider using a separate JUMBLES account, but ended up deciding against it since it wouldn't help with the accounting anyway. It's already a lot to keep track of, and another account would only mean more accounting to do. People might also try sending direct messages to that account which would not likely be seem promptly. We also weren't sure on what the site rules for alts were when setting this up, and there were enough moving parts in those 48 hours that we didn't want that being a potential blocker. It would be nice for my profit graph not to be tainted, but the cat's out the bag on that one already. Moreover, transferring NO shares is not without some risk, since any limit orders set up for such a transfer could be sniped by someone paying close attention.

@cthor got it. thanks!

Selling my debt for Ṁ2,000

@bohaska Stop Punting has negotiated a deal with me that he will give me an agent's fee if I find debt. Stop Punting can buy your debt for 2000M. Would you want to do this?

@bohaska sent!

@100Anonymous lmao wtf is going on here?

@bens I'm helping @StopPunting find debt to buy, so I get agent's fee

@Tumbles please change the ledger.

@StopPunting Confirmed!

I am selling my debt for 12,000 M, if anyone is up for the offer

@manifoldgod I'm offering 6K for your 18K. It's a bit far away.

@manifoldgod I'd do 7.2K (still far away)

@StopPunting I'll take this offer unless anyone has anything better

@StopPunting I'll take this offer

@manifoldgod sent!

confirmed!

Let's say it becomes a near certainty that Tumbles cannot pay off any of his remaining loans. What is to stop someone from just buying all of his debt for some arbitrarily small amount and forgiving it in order to make a profit on this market? Why isn't this equivalent to him defaulting on his debt?

@AndrewHebb why would anyone want to prevent someone doing that?

@AndrewHebb Someone who owns a large number of YES shares (maybe Hillary? Semiotic?) could demand the full amount.

@AndrewHebb

What is to stop someone from just buying all of his debt for some arbitrarily small amount and forgiving it in order to make a profit on this market? Why isn't this equivalent to him defaulting on his debt?

this would be roughly equivalent to all of his creditors forgiving his debt. if they all miraculously did this, i don't see why that wouldn't count for this market. but i don't see why they'd all do that?

you can say they'd do that if it was a certainty that tumbles will default, and thus he won't default. but if enough forgive their debts that repayment starts to seem plausible, then other creditors will demand more of their loans. this will naturally balance itself out, especially since people are selling tumbles debt back and forth.

(plus, @TimothyJohnson5c16 is right that there are YES holders who would be willing to buy that debt and demand full repayment. and the existence of those YES holders again means that if there's any chance tumbles might repay in full, creditors are incentivized to not sell for pennies on the dollar).

guys, some ppl are trying really hard to buy your debt, so wait a bit and they'll offer better prices. you can get 60+ cents on the dollar no problem i reckon

i will not in fact buy your debt to sell it higher later though. why, you might ask. why indeed.

@Bayesian If people give up on buying debt because prices are too high, then the value of debt will actually drop over time!

@AndrewHebb I won't sell my debt for anything less than 150%! (Or the equivalent equity in some other wacky financial scheme)