Will @evan be late to pay back a loan?
17
Ṁ1171
2027
76%
chance

This market is meant to gauge whether or not I can be trusted to pay back my loans on time.

This market will resolve YES if I am ever late to pay back an agreed-upon mana loan. This market will resolve NO when I don't owe anybody mana for 90 consecutive days.

Current outstanding loans:
May 20, 2025: 22,000 mana @SanghyeonSeo

May 25, 2025: 1,000 mana @Fion

May 26, 2025: 2,695 mana @100Anonymous

May 29, 2025: 22,000 mana @Conflux

May 30, 2025: 37,800 mana @Bayesian

June 2, 2025: 55,000 mana @AmmonLam
June 15, 2025, 10,500 mana @Interrobang
June 16, 2025: 11,000 mana @Odoacre
June 16, 2025: 12,000 mana @mana
June 16, 2025: 12,500 mana @copiumarc

June 18, 2025: 12,500 mana @TheWabiSabi
May 15, 2026: 8,636 mana @GastonKessler

April 26, 2027: 3,584 mana @GastonKessler

Total: Ṁ211,215

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bought Ṁ10 NO

You have 178k P2P debt and 102k nominal NW. If you liquidated almost everything and put it on a coinflip (and resolved to be more risk-averse in the future, or just paid off your loans early), you'd have a ~50% shot at paying back your loans on time, much better than this market is giving you right now.

@Robincvgr I WANT MY SHORTS let Evan go bank rupt.

Why don't you buy C100 insurance on your big loans (>10000M)? I think that's a good idea

bought Ṁ100 YES

i dont actually want you to default im just placing this bet so Robin comes along and bails you out just to ruin my day

what if you loan more to pay off your current loan? Won't that basically make you never late to pay back a loan?

@ZandaZhu Haha, if only people continue to loan out to me!

bought Ṁ10 NO

@ZandaZhu Ponzi?

@spiderduckpig yea basically

wow

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 44% order🤖
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