Will Amit fail to repay any loan by the end of the loan term?
13
Ṁ10k
Dec 31
16%
chance

This market predicts whether Amit will fail to repay his loan by the end of the loan term. Failure to repay includes ONLY missing the final loan expiration payment. Resolution will be based on official loan statements or confirmation from the lender, lendee or both.

Any loan extensions must be approved by both parties and publicly stated on this market or manifold discord.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amit fails to fully repay any loan by the end of its term. Failure to repay includes:

  • Missing the final payment ONLY

Resolution will be based on official loan statements or confirmation from the lender or borrower.

This market will resolve to "No" if Amit doesnt owe any loans for 30 consecutive days.

Background

It's important to note that the exact terms and conditions regarding default are specified in the loan agreement which are screenshotted and shared to my loan officers.

Loan profile info - amitbhalesha.substack.com/p/loan-me-mana

ANY USER CAN PAY MY LOANS / DEBTS OFF INCLUDING LOAN OFFICERS, NON ASSOCIATED PARTIES AND DONATIONS OR GIFTS.

Amit can at any time sell his debt to another user.

CURRENT LOANS

DM ME FOR SAME DEALS AS BELOW.

May 8th 2025 - Ṁ2000 @Robincvgr - 3500 due October 8 2025

May 8th 2025 - Ṁ2000 @GastonKessler - (IMF) in exchange for Ṁ3333 on May 8th 2027

May 8th 2025 - Ṁ1,000 @Nightsquared - 3138 mana due 5/8/26

May 8th 2025 - Ṁ1,500 @Odoacre - 10%/mo interest, 12mo

May 7th 2025 - Ṁ1,500 @spiderduckpig - 10%/mo interest, 12mo

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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amit if you take on more risky loans robin has financial incentive to bail you out so you should mention that to creditors

@Bayesian annoucement coming soon.

tbc i meant you should mention that to creditors bc they should be more willing to lend you money if it's money that some other person has financial incentive in you paying back! and alright

@Bayesian ye i know my lender officer group has talked about this. maybe u should join?

opened a Ṁ700 NO at 30% order

@256 no order up at 30% if you want

@Robincvgr bayesian ate it lol

bought Ṁ10 YES

oops didn't notice that was for nes, i can sell at the same price idm

or... 1% higher......

opened a Ṁ69 NO at 32% order

@Bayesian oh i dont care who fills it, was just tagging someone i thought might be interested

opened a Ṁ700 NO at 31% order

nes if you are interested i will now sell these beautiful shares at 35%

can other people pay off your loans on your behalf, like in the Tumbles market?

lol

bought Ṁ25 NO

@Bayesian i'm wondering if i can accumulate a big enough position that if this guy goes inactive or becomes insolvent, it becomes profitable for me to save everything myself

the setup where others can pay for the msrket to resolve yes just dries up market liquidity ig. But i suppose u could just send him the money he needs to pay back the loans, as a gift, so does it rly matter? Unless he said gifts arent allowed

@Bayesian inactivity is a bigger concern than insolvency imo

@Robincvgr Good point

@Robincvgr hmm i will let yall lenders jointly decide.

@amitiscool it seems like it would be in our interest for our loans to be paid off by any means available

@Robincvgr that works for me, my position here is just intended as insurance

bought Ṁ25 NO

@Bayesian

atp just seeing if my shares-costbasis can outrun the size of the moral hazard i'm creating for amit

i welcome all short sellers, please short me i love yall.

reposted

enjoy shorting or longing me !

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