Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon Resolution Clarification:
Dirty bomb does not count as a nuclear weapon.
Refer to the linked example for further context: Metaculus page
Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The standard for Iran 'obtaining a nuclear weapon' is further clarified:
Iran's status must be comparable to that of the existing, recognized nuclear weapon states.
This implies a level of capability and general acknowledgement (as reported by reliable media outlets) similar to countries such as:
United States
Russia
China
France
United Kingdom
India
Pakistan
Israel
North Korea
1,000
3.00@ICRainbow Something like https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/31123/will-iran-possess-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2026/ ... a dirty bomb would not count.
@ICRainbow When I google "how many states have nuclear weapons" right now I get:
"Nine countries are known to possess nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea."
Wikipedia has an article.