This market assesses the likelihood of a deepfake video or audio impersonating a White House official resulting in a military incident involving U.S. troops by October 7, 2025. A military incident is defined as any engagement where U.S. military forces are involved in hostilities or significant operational responses. Resolution will be based on credible reports from sources such as the Department of Defense or major news outlets.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if a deepfake video or audio impersonating a White House official directly leads to a military incident involving U.S. troops by October 7, 2025. A military incident is defined as any engagement where U.S. military forces are involved in hostilities or significant operational responses.

For resolution, there must be credible evidence that:

1. A deepfake impersonating a White House official (President, Vice President, National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State, Press Secretary, etc.) was created and distributed

2. This deepfake directly contributed to a military incident involving U.S. troops

3. The connection between the deepfake and the military incident is confirmed by credible sources such as the Department of Defense, intelligence agencies, or reputable news organizations

The market resolves NO if no such incident occurs by October 7, 2025.

Background

Deepfakes use artificial intelligence to create convincing fake videos or audio recordings that can make it appear as if someone said or did something they never did. The technology has advanced rapidly in recent years, making detection increasingly difficult.

The U.S. government has recognized the threat posed by deepfakes to national security. In 2023, President Biden issued Executive Order 14110 aimed at managing AI risks, including those related to deepfakes. Additionally, the NSA, FBI, and CISA have provided guidance on recognizing and responding to deepfake threats.

Considerations

Deepfakes pose a growing national security concern as they could potentially:

• Create false impressions of official orders or statements

• Cause confusion in command structures

• Provoke military responses based on fabricated threats

• Damage relationships with allies or escalate tensions with adversaries

The U.S. military and intelligence communities are developing methods to detect deepfakes, but the technology continues to evolve, creating an ongoing challenge for verification of authentic communications.