Will there be a ban on distribution of deepfakes of public persons in the US by the end of 2025?
Will there be a ban on distribution of deepfakes of public persons in the US by the end of 2025?
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Resolves as YES if by the end of 2025 there’s a law in the US that prohibits distributing (e.g. selling or posting on the internet) of AI generated deepfakes of publicly known person or group of people.
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Where does a mandatory watermarking law sit?
What happens if a law is passed in specific contexts? Eg penalty for using it for revenge porn/sexual harassment?
What happens if there’s legal consensus that the law won’t survive constitutional review?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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