LLM reaches >90% Brier score on Prophet Arena by 2026?
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Ṁ796
Dec 31
24%
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Prophet Arena evaluates the ability of LLMs to forecast the future by letting them predict on live prediction markets (Kalshi).

As of 2025-08-18, the current leader in Brier score is GPT-5 with 82.21%.

Resolves YES, if an LLM manages to reach over 90% on the leaderboard for at least one week (to prevent lucky outliers).

Resolves NA, if the website stops being maintained for at least one month.

Resolves NO, otherwise.

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@kiudee I think you mean 1 - brier score, which is what they report. a 10% or less brier score (less is better) would mean a 90% or more score on the Prophet Arena

that's minor and presumably nobody would be confused but probably worth clarifying the description

To confirm, that's what I meant. Thanks for the keen eye.

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