I was browsing Twitter, and I saw a post by Karpathy positively talking about ChatBot Arena, which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. I wonder which company will be #1 with the highest ELO rating at the end of 2025.
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3.00@Sss19971997 will add answers later but for now let’s keep it at other and only add companies that actually have a realistic chance
@Sss19971997 The other is at 3% right now and covers these options and more. It would make sense to separate if other was a bit higher 😅
@Soli FWIW, I rarely bet on "Other" because I'm afraid that my Mana will be broken out of the Other into new answers that I don't believe in.
I still believe your reasoning is correct, and that it makes sense that you don't need to add new answers. But I think th straightforward numerical breakdown of the number is not representative of the actual probabilities, at least for me.
What is this?
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00