Which AI companies will release a SoTA LLM on AidanBench in 2025?
Which AI companies will release a SoTA LLM on AidanBench in 2025?
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5
Ṁ10k2026
51%
Google
50%
Anthropic
47%
xAI
45%
Any Chinese Company
Resolved
YESOpenAI
Each answer resolves Yes if they release an LLM in 2025 that has the highest score on AidanBench at any time in 2025, according to the AidanBench Github.
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Here's the latest leaderboard, now hosted on AidanBench.com instead of the Github. GPT-4.5 scores highest of all non o-series models, Claude 3.7 scores worse than 3.5 (new), somehow o1 almost doubled its previous score and is back in first, and grok 3 still isn't on the leaderboard since there's no API access yet.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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