Government shutdown longer than the last one?
29
Ṁ817Oct 20
62%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The brief funding lapse in 2024 does not count as a shutdown for the purpose of this market's resolution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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bought Ṁ50 NO
Just...
15 + 10 + 18 + 14 != 73. And that's including "other" (and I'm excluding 30-35)
https://manifold.markets/PaperBoy/how-long-will-the-government-shutdo
Also, the market with real money says 53% chance right now:
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovshutlength/days-of-government-shutdown/kxgovshutlength-26jan01
bought Ṁ5 NO from 62% to 59%
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