Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to the single duration bucket that matches the length of the U.S. federal “lapse in appropriations” (government shutdown) that begins in FY2026 (Oct 1, 2025–Sep 30, 2026). Exactly one option resolves Yes; all others resolve No.

• Start: 12:00AM ET October 1

• End: when the President signs a law (CR or full‑year appropriations) that restores funding to all agencies affected by the lapse. Mainstream media (NYT, WSJ, WaPo) best estimates of this time will be used.

• Counting: duration is the number of calendar midnights (ET) that pass while the shutdown is in effect. A lapse that starts and ends on the same calendar day counts as 0 days; any day with any portion under shutdown counts toward the total.

Background

• A shutdown occurs when annual or interim appropriations lapse; under the Antideficiency Act, most activities stop except those authorized by law (e.g., protection of life/property). The longest prior shutdown lasted 35 days (Dec 2018–Jan 2019); others include 16 days (Oct 2013) and brief lapses in Jan/Feb 2018. (congress.gov)

• As of Oct 1, 2025, agencies have been preparing for a potential lapse; e.g., HHS and FAA detailed expected furloughs and excepted operations if funding expires. These preparations indicate heightened shutdown risk at the FY2026 start. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• Partial shutdowns are possible if some agencies are pre‑funded; this market measures from the onset of the lapse until all initially unfunded agencies are covered by an enacted CR/appropriations law.

• OMB posts agency contingency plans that clarify which functions continue during a lapse; these are useful for confirming implementation timing. (whitehouse.gov)

• Time zone is Eastern Time for start/end and day counting; newswires may report local times—use ET when categorizing duration.

• Update 2025-10-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Bucket boundaries and exact ties

  • Durations strictly below a boundary resolve to the lower bucket; strictly above resolve to the higher bucket. Example: 4d 23h 59m -> 2-5; 5d 1m -> 5-10.

  • If the duration is exactly on a bucket boundary (e.g., exactly 5, 10, 15 days), both adjacent buckets will resolve at 50% each.

• Update 2025-10-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Agency defunding clarification: If a new funding agreement is widely considered the end of the shutdown, it will count as the shutdown end date even if some agency is no longer receiving funding under the new agreement (as long as it isn't a Trump scheme to divert funds). The "all agencies" language is meant to prevent ambiguity when two separate bills are passed to fund different agencies in tranches—in that case, the shutdown ends at the later date when all initially affected agencies are funded.

• Update 2025-10-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market close date is not fixed: The creator will extend the close date as long as the shutdown lasts to allow continued trading throughout the shutdown period.

• Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Calendar date mapping added: The creator has added calendar dates to each duration bucket option to show which dates correspond to which buckets (e.g., "0-2 days (October 1-3)").