Government shutdown exceeds 35-day record?
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This market resolves YES if the U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025 continues for more than 35 days, surpassing the 2018-2019 shutdown which lasted 35 days (December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019).

Context: The current shutdown began at 12:01 AM ET on October 1, 2025, after Congress failed to pass appropriations legislation. The previous record for longest government shutdown was 35 days during the Trump administration's first term.

Resolution Criteria:

  • Resolves YES if the shutdown continues past November 5, 2025 (which would be day 36)

  • Resolves NO if the government reopens on or before November 5, 2025

  • Resolution will be based on official notices from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) website at https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/ checked at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on November 5, 2025

  • If there are multiple shutdowns in 2025, this market only considers the shutdown that began on October 1, 2025

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I think there's an off-by-one error here. The 2018-2019 shutdown lasted 35 days when counting both ends, and using that same counting system a 35-day shutdown starting October 1 would last until November 4. This means that a shutdown that ends on November 5 would actually break the record.

There's this market and a 15 day market, so I made a 25 day market:

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