First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by February 1st 2025 | Manifold

First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by February 1st 2025

Plus

71

Ṁ28k

resolved Feb 1

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Currently no confirmed human-to-human transmission. Resolves YES if WHO or CDC confirms first case of human-to-human H5N1 transmission anywhere globally by February 1, 2025. Resolution source: WHO/CDC official announcements.

Next deadline: /ian/first-confirmed-humantohuman-h5n1-t-zZnInOSz5g

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

bought Ṁ250 NO

I think even if this happens, it will take a long time to confirm.

Trading at 4% on Polymarket
https://polymarket.com/event/human-to-human-bird-flu-transmission-before-february/human-to-human-bird-flu-transmission-before-february?tid=1735739753394

bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 20% to 10%

bought Ṁ50 NO

Related questions

First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by May 1st 2025

Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?

+7% 1d41% chance

How many H5N1 bird flu human cases will be confirmed in the US in 2025?

Will 25 or more states be affected by H5N1 by the end of March 2025?

Will there be at least 100,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?

Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?

+9% 1d80% chance

In November, will Manifold think that H5 bird flu was transmitting human-to-human prior to February 12th?

If H5N1 pandemic occurs by 2026, what will be the confirmed case fatality rate for humans in first 3 months?

How many human cases of H5N1 in the US will there be by the end of 2025?

Will there be more than 1,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu in the US by the end of 2025?

Related questions

First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by May 1st 2025

Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?

Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?

In November, will Manifold think that H5 bird flu was transmitting human-to-human prior to February 12th?

How many H5N1 bird flu human cases will be confirmed in the US in 2025?

If H5N1 pandemic occurs by 2026, what will be the confirmed case fatality rate for humans in first 3 months?

Will 25 or more states be affected by H5N1 by the end of March 2025?

How many human cases of H5N1 in the US will there be by the end of 2025?

Will there be at least 100,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?

Will there be more than 1,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu in the US by the end of 2025?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules