Background During Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk announced plans to launch an unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) service in Austin, Texas. The service will operate as a paid ride-hailing option, with vehicles operating autonomously without human drivers.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Tesla launches a paid ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas in June 2025 where vehicles operate without human supervision. The market will resolve NO if:
The launch is delayed beyond June 2025
The service requires human supervision/safety drivers
The service is canceled or not launched at all
The definition of no human driver is clear. The Sawyer merritt and Tesla statements are what they are promising in June. If they launch a paid service without the supervised driver then that counts.
Yes the service must be:
A commercial, paid service
Unsupervised/ no safety driver
It is still YES even if they have the ability to take remote control.
Waymo can take remote control but they are considered by the media as a robotaxi service.
Apollo Go in China, Cruise are considered robotaxi services.
The standard is no human driver in the car and a paid service.
Others can debate their definitions but other questions can be created.
Update 2025-04-30 (PST): - Public access requirement: the service must be bookable by ordinary (non-Tesla employee) customers. If only Tesla employees can book it, the market resolves NO. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Remote monitoring does not count as supervision. The determination of 'unsupervised' focuses on the absence of a human driver in the car.
Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The definition of unsupervised is further clarified: the service must not involve human remote supervision to resolve YES.
The creator states that human remote supervision is a disqualifying factor, providing Waymo, Cruise, Apollo Go, and Autox as examples of services that would be disqualified if they operate with such supervision. This refines the criteria for what constitutes an acceptable unsupervised launch for this market, particularly regarding remote operations.
1,000
3.00@TiredCliche no remote monitoring does not count as supervision. Remote monitoring will prevent or massively slow scaling of the service. Just like in the old days telephone operators limited what phone service scaling could reach BUT it was still a phone service. A phone service with operators. This will be a taxi service without human drivers IN the car.