Background
Tesla plans to launch its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025, as announced by Elon Musk. This is part of Tesla's broader autonomous vehicle strategy, which relies on its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. Austin was selected as the initial launch city partly due to Texas' relatively lenient regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles compared to states like California.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Tesla launches a robotaxi service in Austin by the end of June 2025 that:
Is considered at least SAE 4
Allows members of the public to summon and ride in autonomous Tesla vehicles without a safety driver present
Operates as a commercial service (whether paid or free during an initial period)
Functions within at least some parts of Austin city limits
The market will resolve to NO if:
The launch is delayed beyond June 2025
The service launches but requires safety drivers to be present
The service is limited to Tesla employees or a closed testing group rather than being available to the general public
The service is restricted to set routes, ie like a bus line
Tesla cancels or indefinitely postpones the Austin robotaxi plans
Considerations
Several factors could impact the timeline and success of this rollout:
Technical challenges with Tesla's FSD system, which has faced criticism regarding reliability and safety
Regulatory hurdles that might emerge despite Texas' current favorable environment
Public acceptance concerns, as some Austin residents and officials have expressed skepticism about autonomous vehicles following incidents with other operators
Production and supply chain issues that could delay vehicle availability
Tesla has a history of announcing ambitious timelines that are subsequently delayed
Update 2025-04-28 (PST): Remote safety drivers/operators are not permitted. If the service depends on communication or cooperation with a remote driver (i.e., a cooperative system), it does not qualify as SAE 4 and will resolve to NO. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00Similar market with laxity on the timing: https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-tesla-count-as-a-waymo-competi
@tobiasscheuer doesn’t count. Unlikely to qualify as SAE 4.
From Wikipedia link above:
Cooperative system
A remote driver is a driver that operates a vehicle at a distance, using a video and data connection.[63]
According to SAE J3016,
Some driving automation systems may indeed be autonomous if they perform all of their functions independently and self-sufficiently, but if they depend on communication and/or cooperation with outside entities, they should be considered cooperative rather than autonomous.
@BlueDragon I agree with you if we were talking about full time remote operators. But I'm assuming they'll have remote safety operators which jump in to help if the car gets stuck, similar to Waymo, Zoox and just about every other autonomous driving company. As far as I know that still qualifies as SAE 4 and most companies are doing or aiming for that combination
@tobiasscheuer 👍 if it’s comparable to Waymo / Zoox and generally in the league of SAE 4 I say we resolve yes, right?
@TiredCliche … feel free to read the title, market description with particular attention to resolution criteria and then restate your point, I’ll be happy to respond when it makes sense :).
@BlueDragon My objection is Waymo and Zoox rely on remote safety drivers. Therefore, if it's comparable to those, by your standards, it should resolve NO.
@TiredCliche this market is about robotaxis and has always specified SAE 4 as the appropriate level of self-driving.
@BlueDragon I can't tell whether SAE 4 allows control by remote safety drivers. Waymo and Zoox are not autonomous. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/03/technology/zoox-self-driving-cars-remote-control.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
@TiredCliche as far as I know SAE lvl 4 applies to highly automated vehicles which need remote human support in edge cases. Which applies to waymo and zoox and probably later Tesla FSD with a remote safety driver. SAE levels apply mainly to operational area restrictions and only level five is fully autonomous with no help ever
@BlueDragon that's a coherent definition for me and fine resolution, but I'll sell my NO since I was thinking about no remote help since Musk was always boasting
@tobiasscheuer fair enough! But you may be overlooking the more likely scenario: Robotaxis do not roll out in June, due to the overwhelming crush of responsibility Musk has taken on for the US federal government.
@BlueDragon yes, a further delay is definitely possible. But looking at the Tesla robot event where everything was faked, I wouldn't be surprised if they do it for the cars as well. If the cars are driving with FSD say 80% of the time vs Waymos 99%, it still kinda counts as Level 4 but FSD is still way worse. I'm just looking for markets where I can squeeze people who are too confident in FSD :)
Edit: also you may want to edit the AI generated resolution criteria