Also it sounds like people are saying that a human operator taking control from time to time counts as full self driving, which it does not

@TiredCliche We just need the clarification from the market creator on which autonomy level is needed for this to resolve YES. Review of the levels at https://agifriday.substack.com/p/tesla

What's potentially tricky about adjudicating this is that there's something of a continuum. Suppose the creator decides level 3 counts. Reasonable choice! But then what if it's so restrictive (like Mercedes's offering: on certain highways, in good weather, during the day, below 40mph, following another car, ...) that it hardly feels like it counts? I recommend starting an FAQ in the market description and just letting people ask about all the weird edge cases they can dream up. As the market creator, you can make the judgment calls on how they'd resolve, or ask traders for more input and then make the call. Examples:

1. Does level 4 count?

2. Does level 3 count?

3. What if it's level 3 but so restricted it's hardly useful?

4. What if it's level 3 but so rarely asks the human to take over that it feels like level 4?

5. What if it's technically level 2 but goes thousands of miles between critical disengagements?

6. What if it's available in one of Texas or California but not both?

7. What if the geographic region is restricted to the point of uselessness?

8. What if Tesla achieves this in spirit with robotaxis but doesn't roll it out to privately-owned Teslas?

Importantly, it's incumbent on us as traders to ask for those clarifications before trading. Don't let us bully you by forcefully insisting on what the "obviously natural" interpretation is. (I have strong opinions on a few of those questions myself but I'll aim to just respectfully make my case and then just not trade if I'm not satisfied with the clarifications.)

Sold all of my NO because of the possibility of a YES resolution from some AI hype nonsense

So if no normal Tesla owner in California can use FSD unsupervised, it sounds like this is a NO as written? Even if it's a huge success in Texas?

And if the robotaxi launch is a huge success but no individual Tesla owners can use unsupervised FSD, that's also a NO?

@dreev I suggest you look at the name of this market. This isn't a market about whether a launch is deemed successful. You could probably make your own market about that, if that's what you want to bet on

@TiredCliche I didn't mean to imply such, just giving evocative hypotheticals. I'm interested to hear people's opinions on the best answers to these clarifying questions. I'm imagining cases where this market may feel like a YES but technically be a NO.

@dreev I mean, that doesn't feel like a YES to me- I'm betting in this market about whether Tesla will achieve a huge technical leap over competitors. If they start a business that's more successful than Waymo but the cars still can't drive themselves, then that's not unsupervised FSD.

@TiredCliche Right, we all agree this is about level 4 autonomy. The question is about the details in the market description about current Tesla owners and specific US states. My reason to mention the robotaxi launch is that that's a way for this to feel like a YES in spirit despite missing the specific criteria in the market description. Again, level 4 / unsupervised FSD is not in question.

@dreev hold up. Level 4 isn't full self driving. If you're talking about SAE, you meant Level 5.

@TiredCliche I do mean level 4. I've laid out what the levels mean here: https://agifriday.substack.com/p/tesla

There will be unsupervised rides provided by Tesla the company starting in June and rolling bout city by city but tesla owners will have restrictions on usage until next year. Although the smart summon and dispatch which is already driverless could have more and more areas. 85 meters of smart summon and dispatch now. If smart summon went to 250 meters. 500 meters or a kilometer would that count?

Is there no minimum area for the compatible region? From the description, it seems like this resolves Yes if unsupervised FSD works in a single street in California, which seems strange

@Ppau

it seems like this resolves Yes if unsupervised FSD works in a single street in California, which seems strange

yes, if anyone with a 3 or Y can drive down a single street in both California and Texas this Resolves YES. I agree that this would be strange, but the strange portion would be Elon releasing FSD this way, not this market.