How long will the shutdown beginning on October 1st last?
66
Ṁ9525
Jan 1
0.1%
No Shutdown
0.1%
Less than a day (0.01 - 0.99 days)
0.1%
1 day (1 - 1.99 days)
0.1%
2 days (2 - 2.99 days)
0.2%
3 - 4 days (3 - 4.99 days)
0.2%
5 - 9 days (5 - 9.99 days)
28%
10 - 29 days (10 - 29.99 days)
71%
30 or more days (>= 30 days)

This market will resolve according to how many days the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM.

Only an "actual" shutdown with furloughs will count, for the purposes of this question. A "non-actual" shutdown will resolve to the first option (no shutdown).

I will not bet in this market.

  • Update 2025-10-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The shutdown is considered to start at midnight at the end of Sep 30 (12:00 AM Oct 1).

    • It ends when funding legislation is signed into law by the President.

#Gov shutdown
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I assume it started midnight at end of 30 September. When does it end? When funding legislation passes congress? Signed into law by president? When furloughed workers return to work? or something else?
@bens

@ChristopherRandles started at midnight, yes

Ends when signed into law by President!

Is there an option for “democracy is over”?

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