Will Manifold outperform Metaculus in 2023 ACX contest? | Manifold

Will Manifold outperform Metaculus in 2023 ACX contest?

Basic

27

Ṁ4604

resolved Mar 5

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/who-predicted-2022

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Sequel market:

Unless my math is wrong, we sadly fall short in logloss and R^2 scoring ):

At what time horizon?

Extending until results posted by a reliable source (probably ACX)

Related questions

Will Manifold outperform Metaculus in the 2024 ACX Contest?

Which of the following Manifold users will rank highest in the ACX 2025 prediction contest?

Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?

Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Will Manifold surpass Metaculus in DAUs by 2025?

Will Manifold Markets be more popular than Metaculus by the end of 2024?

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

Will Manifold be acquired by Meta by end of 2030?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

Related questions

Will Manifold outperform Metaculus in the 2024 ACX Contest?

Will Manifold surpass Metaculus in DAUs by 2025?

Which of the following Manifold users will rank highest in the ACX 2025 prediction contest?

Will Manifold Markets be more popular than Metaculus by the end of 2024?

Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?

Will Manifold be acquired by Meta by end of 2030?

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules