Which of the following Manifold users will rank highest in the ACX 2025 prediction contest?

Plus

Ṁ2259

2026

34%

Bayesian (https://manifold.markets/Bayesian)

22%

nikki (https://manifold.markets/nikki)

17%

Other

11%

jim (https://manifold.markets/jim)

Timothy Johnson (https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16)

Primer (https://manifold.markets/Primer)

Resolves to the user among those listed with the overall lowest score (according to the scoring rule used by Metaculus).

This market will never resolve to Other, but I've included that option just so I can add additional people.

If you'd like to participate, leave a comment asking me to add you by the end of February. After that point, the list of contestants for this market will be closed.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@TimothyJohnson5c16 will entry to this competition close at some point?

@jim Good question, I generally make these things up as I go.

But I was thinking of locking the list of competitors somewhat soon, maybe at the end of this month. What do you think?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 sounds good to me

@benshindel u might as well enter this

add me

These are the top three questions where I diverged the most:

If I had understood the scoring rule beforehand, I would have skipped the AfD question. I picked 50% just because I was very uncertain, and I did very little research.

I'd like to participate

@Bayesian Done!

filled a Ṁ5 NO at 10% order

I'd like to participate.

Please add me.

Is Brier score the right thing to use? The competition is decided by sum of peer score. But I have no idea if that's equivalent or not.

@jim Hmm, I've never used Metaculus, so let me check on that.

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 45% order

I'll just change this to "score" for now - my intention was to use the same score that Metaculus uses.

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