how are you all so bad at this

Which side are you on?

@jim Is higher better? What does this mean

@Bayesian the winner of this contest is determined by who has the highest sum of peer scores accross the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest markets

@jim Oh so ur way better than me so far?

@Bayesian yes but this is just our scores for resolved questions, not the questions in the 2025 contest

@Bayesian frankly my comment is tongue-in-cheek tho, one pretty much gets a better peer score by just updating one's predictions more frequently. Which we can't do in this contest because it just takes our predictions as of jan 31 and ignores any updates we make.

@jim these are both so low, my avg peer score these days is like 20

@benshindel yes we're casuals lol. Reveal some of your predictions for this contest?

@jim

@jim one interesting thing about this contest is that the questions skewed less likely than average by a decent amount:

community average was ~38%, my average was ~36% across questions. There's basically no reason this should happen because you could easily phrase questions in the negative ("this won't happen" vs "this will happen") so I thought this was interesting

@benshindel your predictions are very different to mine. Where you deviate from the community in one direction, I generally do in the other...

also I can't believe the manifold covid market question is at 30. the only way that happens is through very big news (basically Xi admitting it) or market manipulation (then it will probably get annulled lol)

@nikki why would it get annulled on market manipulation? 😟

@Bayesian I'd bet against it getting annulled

@jim

Those who doubt jim will live to regret it

@zsig bet the market up then

@Bayesian Slowly but surely

Here are some of the questions that will determine my fate:

(i didn't see this one when i was going through the acx questions)

almost all the others I'm within a few % from the aggregated probability. that actually blows my mind.

i believe in you jim

Here are some of the questions which will determine my fate:

@jim Lol, I predicted 90% for Elon being the richest person. Do you expect Tesla and SpaceX to crash that badly?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 there's two parts (1) I don't expect Tesla to do that well, could stagnate / decline (2) I expect some massive gains for others from AI companies. Meta, Amazon, Oracle, Alphabet

@jim what's your case for trump at net approval? Base rates are terrible these days

@nikki just a feeling, also base rate didn't seem that bad for presidents that start in the same area as Trump

@jim why are you so low on the Polymarket real-money betting question? That was one that I had a lot of uncertainty about and heavily hedged towards 50%

@TimothyJohnson5c16 (TSLA down 19% since I made this comment)

@jim Fair, but Elon is still leading by over $100 billion...