Will “Designer babies” be available by the year 2040?
Will “Designer babies” be available by the year 2040?
Basic
7
Ṁ126
2040
42%
chance

If "Designer babies" are available by 2040 then this will resolve YES.

If not then it will resolve NO.

"Designer babies" defined as: A genetically modified child to have one or any number of custom traits such as height, hair and eye color, skin tone, tendency towards muscle growth etc.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:

Can you please confirm if your definition would include genetic edits that are intended to result in curing (or mitigating the effects of) a disease? e.g. a genetic edit that cures an inborn error of metabolism that would result in severe lifelong disease. I ask as your other examples are mostly aesthetic, but this is more likely to happen first.

Can you also please confirm if you mean only germline edits (done on embryo stem cells, affecting all or nearly all cells in the baby at birth, will be passed on to children), or somatic editing (affects mostly only cells in a specific tissue or its precursor, eg editing cells that will form parts of bone marrow and the immune system, will not be passed on to children unless done on gametes).

1y

@WXTJ The second question is much easier to answer. I’ll say any editing that happens pre-birth. I think I’ll say that purely health related things do not qualify as that is a health related edit, not really a “designer” feature.

1y

@ZacheryHolmes Thank you. So edits which are primarily aesthetic, rather than for health reasons.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules