The fertilization must occur in any manner and the baby must be born alive. The process must be relativly safe and not highly experimental, and it must be cheap enough to be available to the middle class.
It does still count if it's only possible based on actions taken during childhood, such as hormones to change pelvis growth.
1,000
3.00Great arbitrage opportunity
https://manifold.markets/KairisrayZaigerius/will-head-transplant-be-possible-be
as given the market rules it's feasible that this market resolves true and the other false given the cost requirement and earlier date here, I don't think it's likely. The probability here should in my view be at-least as high as the head transplant market
How would this market resolve if an intersex person who was assigned male at birth (eg because they had a penis) but had ovaries and a uterus where to get pregnant and carry this pregnancy to term? This is something that I fairly confidante has already happened but I can’t find a simple source for this.
@TomBouley damn, this is what I get for copying another market. The question I am interested in is for endosex people (what a weird use of that prefix, I would have expected intra- or cis-). @IsaacKing would you like to weigh in here, since the Q affects your markets too?
@TomBouley fwiw, this is completely outside the bounds of what I thought the question was asking when I betted. Someone born with a uterus obviously has some sort of existing capacity to get pregnant (even if it's complicated).
'The process must be relativly safe and not highly experimental, and it must be cheap enough to be available to the middle class.'
-heavily implies that the question is targeting males who previously could not become pregnant
I am making the call that unless @IsaacKing says otherwise, I mean someone who was born without biological deviation from the binary. That means that the procedure itself must work for people who
Were born XY, with the SRY gene on their Y chromosome
At some point had at least one teste that functioned at an age-appropriate level
Was not born with a uterus, vagina, or ovaries
It does not matter to me if the first person to receive this care happens to be intersex, and I would not consider it a false positive to mark this as YES if they are later discovered to be intersex
@inerati and relatedly:
How about if someone born male carried and gestated a baby in their abdomen and then had a caesarian?
@JoshuaWilkes that is the intent here. I imagine it would be done via uterine transplant, but even if it was an artificial device I would sign off on it so long as the fetus is inside the pregnant person
@LivInTheLookingGlass Yes. Was mostly clarifying as I think vat baby type situation is significantly more likely
Prediction markets predict strong AGI by 2030 at ~50%
any arguments for why P(this question | AGI by 2030 && AGI doesn't kill everyone) isn't almost 100%? that's a whole 15 years for AGI to become superhuman and develop unimaginable nanotech.
@AlexAmadori btw I'm not saying I agree with the markets on AGI, just that this should be a pretty strong statistical arbitrage