I got the email about this and was like, no way!

Then I had a more confusing reaction, wondering how this could possibly resolve to 33%!

Then I found out reading the comment below.

The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. Please read the full announcement here. The mana market will continue as usual.

Only markets closing before March 3rd will be left open for trading and will be resolved as usual.

Users will be able to cashout or donate their entire sweepcash balance, regardless of whether it has been won in a sweepstakes or not, by March 28th (for amounts above our minimum threshold of $25).

minor update: i had a brief moment when there was a chance I might be pregnant, though highly unlikely. At that point I realized that if I were pregnant I'd be pretty unhappy about it, that at least right now I did not want to have or raise a child. I'm still very interested in genetic progeny in general tho.
Maybe feelings will shift around in the future, but it's a small datapoint.

https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-i-poop-my-pants-before-2027 it's a no, folks

Will I poop my pants before 2027?

Resolved YES. Will I poop my own pants by Dec 31, 2026? Must be a full poop, not a shart. Skirts, kilts, dresses, bodysuits, jeggings, and togas also count, if pooped in. Must be unintentional and outside of a hospital or my own bed. If someone pays me to perform the pooping, this does not count. I have pooped my pants (according to these specifications) twice in my adult life, which spans the last 13 years.

It's slightly funny that someone betting on this market could also take part in determining the result.

Manifold thinks that this is the only Sweepstakes market considered "hot" and "random".

They fixed it. It's the only one considered "🎲 Fun" now, though.

are you willing to use a sperm donor or otherwise get pregnant from a man that does not intend to stay with you and raise the child?

How old you are would probably be the biggest piece of info here

@Riley12 Google says 32

Will this only resolve ‘Yes’ if the baby gestates in your own uterus?

Booooo adoption should count

Will you bet on this market?

I don't think Aella having a baby for mana is something we have to worry about

@GazDownright I bet on all my markets by default if I want to, excluding ones that have a correct answer that I already know

@Aella hm, what I'm deducing from this is that once you stop buying in this market, I need to buy a huge YES position 🤔

@Aella hm I think ones that are more private like this you shouldn't bet on, big info disparity. But also traders are making the choice to play knowing you're betting no so idk

@Aella are you comfortable with us making markets like these eligible for sweepstakes? I would guess yes but just wanted to check!

@SirSalty sure!

Betting yes as a manifestation

@TheWabiSabi that really puts the manifest in manifestation