Will there be another political Assassination or a famous figure that everyone knows in 2025?
9
Ṁ230Dec 31
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There are a few public lists of top 10,000 famous celebrities. I can generate one with AI. This is what I mean by everyone knows. An attempt counts as long as a shot is fired. It doesn't matter if the shooter has a political leaning, only that the target does, or is famous. Globally in 2025.
Or mass shooting of Christians! Not counting today's murder. In this case there must be multiple deaths to qualify as Yes.
Related market:
https://manifold.markets/SteveBright/will-some-crazy-shit-happen-in-the-SnL2qAEq60
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
See my other related market: Will some Crazy Shit happen this month!
https://manifold.markets/SteveBright/will-some-crazy-shit-happen-in-the-SnL2qAEq60
Related questions
Related questions
Will anyone attempt to assassinate Elon Musk in 2025?
10% chance
Will there be more political self-immolations in 2025 as compared to 2024 as reported by Wikipedia?
21% chance
Will there be another assassination of a US politician before the 2026 midterms?
45% chance
Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
72% chance
Will another assassination of a public figure happen on a college campus before 2027?
33% chance
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
16% chance
Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?
18% chance
Will political violence in the US increase in 2025?
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?
24% chance
Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?
10% chance