This market resolves primarily based on data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data's US Crisis Monitor.

https://acleddata.com/us-crisis-monitor/.

Qualitative information from the FBI/DHS's Strategic Intelligence Assessment and Data on Domestic Terrorism report for 2025 (released mid 2026) will be considered as well: https://www.dhs.gov/publication/strategic-intelligence-assessment-and-data-domestic-terrorism

Finally the Anti-Defamation League's "Murder and Extremism in the United States" report or 2025 will be considered:

https://www.adl.org/resources/report/murder-and-extremism-united-states-2024.

Combining these sources into a resolution of this question requires waiting until mid 2026 to resolve. I am attempting to make the answer to this pretty objective, but in the case of ambiguity or conflicting data from these sources I reserve the right to use my judgement. I will do my best to reach a resolution but if I feel unable to do this fairly the market will resolve to invalid.

I will not bet on this market until after the end of 2025.