Resolve YES if a consensus of reporting says that Lisa Cook is on the board of governors of the federal reserve for the October meeting. If it’s ambiguous, resolves based on whether she votes in the interest rate decision. Resolves NO if not.
Context: Trump is trying to fire her. Will it work?
Update 2025-08-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the ambiguity tiebreaker applies, only an officially counted vote in the October rate decision will count. A cast vote that is not officially counted does not satisfy the "votes" criterion.
1,000
3.00@ChadCotty the vote would need to count to count for this market.
I can try to break down what official means if it comes to that, but given that I have a significant position in the market, I probably be deferring to mods at that point anyway.
https://manifold.markets/DanW/will-the-federal-reserve-exist-and?r=RGFuVw
This market also resolves NO if Lisa Cook is fired by Trump.
I'm honestly very surprised people think Trump won't pull this off. Looking into it more I'm swayed, but the base rate seems pretty in Trump's favor for purging dissidents.
@Sketchy I think timing may be the essence here. This will probably go to courts and may not be resolved before October