PROP BET - What will happen in Trump's attempt to fire Fed Reserve Gov Lisa Cook? [Add Answers]

Ṁ2331

2026

78%

Trump announces a nominee for Cook's seat before 2026

70%

A court issues a temporary injunction preventing Cook’s removal before 2026

47%

Senate Committee holds a hearing for nominee to Cook’s seat before 2026

35%

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries surpass 4.600% anytime before 10/1/25

75%

Cook remains in her position as of the September rate-setting meeting

65%

Supreme Court hears arguments or makes ruling on the incident before 2026

57%

Supreme Court ruling on the shadow docket

76%

A higher court reverses a lower court (appeal, tro, etc)

74%

A plaintiff sues the Fed, asking court to enforce Cook's firing

72%

A Supreme Court ruling (regular or shadow docket) has at least 3 dissents

25%

Cook is barred from at least 1 FOMC meeting, AND her firing is ultimately deemed illegal

50%

Cook's replacement votes when regional Fed Presidents' terms are up for renewal (Feb 2026)

55%

Cook gives a published interview (3 questions or more) before 2026

31%

Cook is indicted for a felony related to her mortgages before litigation about her firing is completed

39%

Trump threatens to fire Powell "for cause" since he didn't remove Cook

20%

Trump actually attempts to fire Powell before Cook firing litigation is complete

38%

A sitting GOP Senator criticizes the firing (more than just concerns)

This market refers only to the seat held by Lisa Cook, not any other Fed seats

Update 2025-08-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Announces replacement means Trump announces an intended replacement for Lisa Cook's seat; the nominee does not need to be seated.
- Thus, courts blocking the replacement does not preclude the announcement outcome; both can occur.

Update 2025-08-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - "By 2026" means "before 2026", not by the end of 2026.
- "By" and "before" are used interchangeably in answer options; expect "before" to be used consistently.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

I think the 3 statements by current/former Fed governors should already resolve yes:
Bill Dudley: Trump, the Fed and Independence: Now I'm Worried - Bloomberg
Lael Brainard: Fed Independence Is Under Attack, Says Brainard
Janet Yellen and Alan Blinder: Seeking to control the Fed, Trump risks upending a pillar of the global economy

sold Ṁ50 YES

@AbuElBanat Resolved

@AbuElBanat were they after the creation of the prop bet? I profit from this but nice to have the i's dotted and t's crossed

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yes, 2 of the 3 came out this morning

bought Ṁ50 YES

Just to clarify -- does "by 2026" mean by the end of 2026?

@AbuElBanat By and before are being used interchangeably here - will try to be consistent with before

Hmm. Aren't the two highest bet ones mutually exclusive? That is that Trump announces replacement before 26, and the one claiming that courts prevent it before 26.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Trump can announce his intended replacement without them being seated

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