
The market will resolve to YES as soon as SpaceX Starship rocket reaches spaces and completes at least one full orbit. The market will resolve positively even if there is some sort of mishap or loss of communication, as long as it completes the orbit mostly in one piece.
Until this happens, the answers will be resolved to NO as soon as the respective period is over without a successful flight.
Related questions:
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-5-happen
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-launch-wit
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-attempt-pr
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-launch-or
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-dock-to-a
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land-o1e8o780ic
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-first-reuse-superh
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-first-reuse-starsh
I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To resolve YES, a full 360-degree orbit must be completed.
As an example, a flight that launches to the East and lands back at the same launch site would not count as a full orbit, because the Earth rotates underneath the spacecraft.
@CommanderZander Good question. I would say that if the rocket launches to the East and then lands on the same spot, then it finishes less than a full orbit, because the Earth rotates towards it. To count, the full 360 degrees orbit should be completed.
Sorry for the duplicate but thought people might like different milestones in one place for comparison.
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket
@LarsOsborne Usually these kinds of questions are discussed at length in the comments. This one is, as well. Look for answers to other comments by the market creator
I could kinda see them wanting to do it for IFT-5. They did prove raptor relight with the landing burn, after all.
Most rockets also aren't designed to survive re-entry though
That is a good point, though I'd argue that those spacecraft generally have more reliable deorbit mechanisms (eg lots of redundant thrusters of a relatively simple design whose performance in orbit is well characterised and who've been through tons of rigorous testing on the ground) than relighting a highly experimental rocket engine in conditions that it hasn't really been tested in yet.
I agree that it's not absolutely necessary, but all of the existing space capsules and second stages are an order of magnitude smaller than Starship.
Anyways, the market currently gives only 5% to August, while the probability of a flight before September is 86% from this market: /OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-5-happen . So I guess it is expected that SpaceX will do another suborbital flight.
@Berg I think this is a general understanding of "reach orbit". I don't want to make the title too verbose. It's easy enough to read a few lines of description to confirm the exact resolution criteria.
@OlegEterevsky not really. People generally agree that Yuri Gagarin has reached orbit, although he didn't complete a full revolution. Just replace the word "reach" with the word "complete".