When will SpaceX first reuse Superheavy (Starship 1st stage)?
Plus
32
Ṁ67142026
1.6%
Before 2025-01-01
20%
Before 2025-04-01
47%
Before 2025-07-01
60%
Before 2025-10-01
73%
Before 2026-01-01
80%
Before 2026-04-01
89%
Before 2026-07-01
Resolved
NOBefore 2024-10-01
The market will resolve as soon as SpaceX manages to launch a Starship rocket, successfully land its first stage, aka Superheavy, and launch it for the second time. The second launch doesn't have to be fully successful, the market will resolve positively as long as the rocket leaves the pad.
I do not bet on my own questions.
Related questions:
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land-o1e8o780ic
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Sorry for the duplicate but thought people might like different milestones in one place for comparison.
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket
Related questions
Related questions
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage?
By when will first Starship be reused?
When will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?
47% chance
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
27% chance
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
By when will SpaceX re-fly a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?
Non-SpaceX reusable first stage by 2025?
34% chance
Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?
72% chance